Bulgaria

Channels

Fuel Concentrations

Warnings

• [L-1]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
• [L-2]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
• [L-3]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Audit Breakdown

Channels

Warnings

• [W-2]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
• [W-3]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
• [W-4]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
• [W-5]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
• [W-6]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Audit Breakdown

Channels

Warnings

• [L-1]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
• [L-2]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
• [L-3]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
• [L-4]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
• [L-5]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Audit Breakdown

Channels

Warnings

• [L-1]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
• [L-2]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
• [L-3]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
• [L-4]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channels

Warnings

• [W-1]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
• [W-2]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
• [W-3]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
• [W-4]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
• [W-5]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.