Bulgaria

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.3403

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

—

Less concentrated than 52% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0041

Position in Cohort Distribution

Bulgaria's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1605−0.1839

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3571+0.0127

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1520−0.1923

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.8606+0.5163

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1484−0.1960

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3629+0.0185

Structural Exposure Summary

Bulgaria records a composite ISI of 0.3403, classified as Moderately Concentrated. Structural exposure is led by Defense Industrial Dependency (0.8606) and Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.3629), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Critical Inputs / Raw Materials Dependency at 0.1484, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.7122 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration0.1484

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1520

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.8606

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.3629

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1605Mildly Concentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.1605 on financial sovereignty (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2722

Channel A Volume

13.69K

Channel B Concentration

0.0690

Channel B Volume

16.7K

Score

0.1605

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

22 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

44.8%

21.3%

13.6%

6.4%

5.0%

2.5%

1.7%

1.4%

1.3%

0.7%

44.8%

21.3%

13.6%

6.4%

5.0%

Other

7.6%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3571Moderately Concentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.3571 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

16 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

20.4%

20.3%

17.7%

17.5%

8.0%

1.7%

Other

20.4%

20.3%

17.7%

17.5%

8.0%

Other

11.4%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

492 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

NSP

50.0%

NSP

50.0%

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

57 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

49.9%

29.0%

49.9%

29.0%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3293

Oil

0.4265

Solid Fossil

0.3258

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1520Mildly Concentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.1520 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1440

Channel A Volume

1.47B

Channel B Concentration

0.1601

Channel B Volume

1.47B

Score

0.1520

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

90 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

30.7%

14.8%

11.6%

6.9%

4.0%

3.8%

3.5%

3.0%

2.7%

Other

30.7%

14.8%

11.6%

6.9%

4.0%

Other

16.9%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.3384	178.78M
Legacy Components	0.0955	21.3M
Integrated Circuits	0.1360	1.27B

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.8606Highly Concentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.8606 on defense industrial dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.7693

Channel A Volume

50.3200

Channel B Concentration

0.9520

Channel B Volume

50.3200

Score

0.8606

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

5 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

87.4%

4.3%

4.0%

3.5%

0.8%

87.4%

4.3%

4.0%

3.5%

0.8%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	0.4194	4.16
Land Combat	1.0000	2.16
Naval Combat	1.0000	44

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1484Unconcentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.1484 on critical inputs dependency (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1347

Channel A Volume

228.18M

Channel B Concentration

0.1622

Channel B Volume

228.18M

Score

0.1484

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

49 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

22.5%

18.0%

17.2%

11.1%

5.1%

3.4%

2.9%

2.2%

Other

22.5%

18.0%

17.2%

11.1%

5.1%

Other

15.8%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.3289	81.4K
Battery Metals	0.1853	11.66M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.2108	3.42M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.0992	6.43M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.1620	206.58M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3629Moderately Concentrated

Bulgaria scores 0.3629 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.4830

Channel A Volume

203.49K

Channel B Concentration

0.1813

Channel B Volume

134.6K

Score

0.3629

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

60 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

36.8%

24.3%

23.2%

13.1%

13.0%

10.8%

10.0%

9.4%

7.7%

6.6%

Other

36.8%

24.3%

23.2%

13.1%

13.0%

Other

44.5%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.1831	127.26K
Rail	0.1508	7.35K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.3384

178.78M

Legacy Components

0.0955

21.3M

Integrated Circuits

0.1360

1.27B

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

0.4194

4.16

Land Combat

1.0000

2.16

Naval Combat

1.0000

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.3289

81.4K

Battery Metals

0.1853

11.66M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.2108

3.42M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.0992

6.43M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.1620

206.58M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.1831

127.26K

Rail

0.1508

7.35K