International Sovereignty Index (ISI)

Executive Summary

Countries Scored

27 / 27

EU-27 scope

Composite Mean

0.3444

EU-27 average

Composite Median

0.3403

EU-27 midpoint

Std Deviation

0.0699

Cross-EU dispersion

Range

0.2818

0.2357 → 0.5175

Aggregation

Unweighted Arithmetic Mean

ISI_i = (A1_i + A2_i + A3_i + A4_i + A5_i + A6_i) / 6

Composite Score Distribution

Distribution of ISI composite scores across EU-27 member states. Vertical bands indicate HHI classification thresholds.

Highly Concentrated

Moderately Concentrated

Mildly Concentrated

Unconcentrated

Reading the Index

The ISI measures external dependency concentration across 6 strategic axes using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) framework. Scores range from 0 (perfectly diversified) to 1 (total concentration on a single source).

≥ 0.50 — Highly Concentrated

Critical dependency on one or very few external sources.

0.25–0.49 — Moderately Concentrated

Significant concentration across a small number of sources.

0.15–0.24 — Mildly Concentrated

Moderate spread, but notable concentration remains.

< 0.15 — Unconcentrated

Broadly distributed across many external sources.

Country Rankings

Sortable rankings across all assessed EU-27 member states.

27 of 27 countries

Country	Composite↓	Pctl	Δ Mean	Financial Sovereignty	Energy Dependency	Technology / Semiconductor Dependency	Defense Industrial Dependency	Critical Inputs / Raw Materials Dependency	Logistics / Freight Dependency	Classification
MaltaMT	0.5175	P96	+0.1731	0.1400	0.3507	0.2055	1.0000	0.4087	1.0000	Highly Concentrated
CyprusCY	0.4682	P93	+0.1238	0.1241	0.3477	0.2244	0.7485	0.4236	0.9411	Moderately Concentrated
IrelandIE	0.4280	P89	+0.0836	0.1467	0.4647	0.5870	0.4489	0.3072	0.6137	Moderately Concentrated
DenmarkDK	0.4244	P85	+0.0800	0.1240	0.4703	0.1500	0.7237	0.4363	0.6423	Moderately Concentrated
CroatiaHR	0.4043	P81	+0.0600	0.2730	0.3513	0.1734	0.7465	0.5239	0.3580	Moderately Concentrated
FinlandFI	0.4021	P78	+0.0577	0.1178	0.3627	0.1979	0.3896	0.5470	0.7973	Moderately Concentrated
SwedenSE	0.3987	P74	+0.0543	0.1165	0.3272	0.1198	0.8811	0.1926	0.7551	Moderately Concentrated
AustriaAT	0.3825	P70	+0.0381	0.1490	0.4558	0.2606	0.5851	0.3186	0.5259	Moderately Concentrated
ItalyIT	0.3739	P67	+0.0295	0.1875	0.3078	0.1410	0.9206	0.2084	0.4778	Moderately Concentrated
SloveniaSI	0.3698	P63	+0.0254	0.1192	0.4054	0.3574	0.6666	0.2230	0.4471	Moderately Concentrated
GreeceEL	0.3654	P59	+0.0210	0.2008	0.3354	0.1627	0.5515	0.2220	0.7198	Moderately Concentrated
LuxembourgLU	0.3602	P56	+0.0158	0.1146	0.3598	0.2002	0.6448	0.2230	0.6186	Moderately Concentrated
EstoniaEE	0.3433	P52	-0.0011	0.1817	0.4394	0.2271	0.3556	0.3862	0.4699	Moderately Concentrated
BulgariaBG	0.3403	P48	-0.0041	0.1605	0.3571	0.1520	0.8606	0.1484	0.3629	Moderately Concentrated
NetherlandsNL	0.3352	P44	-0.0092	0.1211	0.3199	0.1253	0.9596	0.1302	0.3549	Moderately Concentrated
HungaryHU	0.3297	P41	-0.0147	0.1222	0.3858	0.2254	0.5447	0.2341	0.4658	Moderately Concentrated
PortugalPT	0.3217	P37	-0.0227	0.1830	0.3486	0.1977	0.4338	0.2596	0.5078	Moderately Concentrated
RomaniaRO	0.3186	P33	-0.0257	0.2003	0.4055	0.2969	0.5635	0.1581	0.2875	Moderately Concentrated
CzechiaCZ	0.3180	P30	-0.0264	0.1612	0.3808	0.1824	0.4841	0.1698	0.5295	Moderately Concentrated
PolandPL	0.2956	P26	-0.0488	0.1331	0.3349	0.2085	0.4433	0.1653	0.4886	Moderately Concentrated
BelgiumBE	0.2880	P22	-0.0564	0.1535	0.3079	0.2945	0.4473	0.1725	0.3521	Moderately Concentrated
GermanyDE	0.2679	P19	-0.0765	0.1019	0.3291	0.0976	0.5827	0.2231	0.2730	Moderately Concentrated
LithuaniaLT	0.2654	P15	-0.0790	0.1335	0.3375	0.2417	0.4023	0.1306	0.3469	Moderately Concentrated
SpainES	0.2609	P11	-0.0835	0.1455	0.3019	0.1926	0.3809	0.1124	0.4324	Moderately Concentrated
LatviaLV	0.2470	P7	-0.0974	0.1232	0.3652	0.1331	0.3408	0.1512	0.3682	Mildly Concentrated
SlovakiaSK	0.2364	P4	-0.1080	0.1616	0.4000	0.2165	0.0000	0.1549	0.4855	Mildly Concentrated
FranceFR	0.2357	P0	-0.1087	0.1004	0.3091	0.1200	0.3703	0.1612	0.3529	Mildly Concentrated

Scores are Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) values on [0, 1]. Higher = more concentrated dependency. Below-mean values indicate less dependency; above-mean values indicate more. Δ Mean shows deviation from the EU-27 composite average.

Axis Registry

6 strategic axes of external dependency, each composed of discrete data channels.

Axis 1

Financial Sovereignty

Active

Concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Ch. A: Banking Claims ConcentrationCh. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

[MEDIUM]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.

[MEDIUM]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.

[LOW]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).

[LOW]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy Dependency

Active

Concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries, volume-weighted across fuel types.

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import ConcentrationCh. oil: Oil Import ConcentrationCh. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

[MEDIUM]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.

[MEDIUM]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.

[LOW]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology / Semiconductor Dependency

Active

Concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries, with category-level decomposition.

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier ConcentrationCh. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

[MEDIUM]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.

[LOW]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.

[LOW]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.

[LOW]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).

[LOW]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense Industrial Dependency

Active

Concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries and capability blocks.

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier ConcentrationCh. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

[MEDIUM]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.

[MEDIUM]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.

[LOW]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.

[LOW]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.

[LOW]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs / Raw Materials Dependency

Active

Concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries, with material-group decomposition.

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier ConcentrationCh. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

[HIGH]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.

[MEDIUM]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.

[MEDIUM]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.

[LOW]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics / Freight Dependency

Active

Concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral freight partners per mode.

Ch. A: Transport Mode ConcentrationCh. B: Partner Concentration per Transport Mode

[HIGH]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.

[MEDIUM]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.

[MEDIUM]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).

[MEDIUM]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.

[LOW]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Scope & Limitations

Not a risk score. The ISI quantifies concentration of external dependencies, not the risk or quality of those dependencies.
Not a policy recommendation. High concentration may be economically rational in some contexts.
EU-27 scope only. Non-EU countries are not assessed.
Unweighted composite. The aggregation treats all axes equally. Domain weighting is outside scope.

See Methodology and Transparency for full details.