Italy

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.3739

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

9 / 27

Less concentrated than 33% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ +0.0295

Position in Cohort Distribution

Italy's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1875−0.1569

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3078−0.0366

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1410−0.2034

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.9206+0.5762

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.2084−0.1360

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4778+0.1334

Structural Exposure Summary

Italy records a composite ISI of 0.3739, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 9 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Defense Industrial Dependency (0.9206) and Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.4778), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Technology / Semiconductor Dependency at 0.1410, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.7795 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1410

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1875

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.9206

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.4778

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1875Mildly Concentrated

Italy scores 0.1875 on financial sovereignty (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2680

Channel A Volume

856.04K

Channel B Concentration

0.1057

Channel B Volume

841.44K

Score

0.1875

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

30 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

46.0%

17.3%

13.7%

6.4%

3.1%

2.9%

2.8%

2.6%

1.3%

1.2%

Other

46.0%

17.3%

13.7%

6.4%

3.1%

Other

10.9%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3078Moderately Concentrated

Italy scores 0.3078 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

56 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

23.4%

19.6%

17.6%

Other

23.4%

19.6%

17.6%

Other

17.6%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

599 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

67 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3119

Oil

0.2767

Solid Fossil

0.3232

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1410Unconcentrated

Italy scores 0.1410 on technology/semiconductor dependency (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1332

Channel A Volume

7.6B

Channel B Concentration

0.1488

Channel B Volume

7.6B

Score

0.1410

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

119 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

25.8%

20.7%

8.4%

7.9%

6.3%

5.4%

3.8%

2.8%

1.9%

1.5%

Other

25.8%

20.7%

8.4%

7.9%

6.3%

Other

15.2%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.2934	1.35B
Legacy Components	0.1505	223.4M
Integrated Circuits	0.1164	6.02B

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.9206Highly Concentrated

Italy scores 0.9206 on defense industrial dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.8880

Channel A Volume

1.75K

Channel B Concentration

0.9531

Channel B Volume

1.75K

Score

0.9206

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

5 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

94.2%

1.8%

1.4%

1.2%

94.2%

1.8%

1.4%

1.2%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	1.0000	1.52K
Land Combat	0.4958	37.9
Naval Combat	0.4102	58
Strike Missile	1.0000	71.6
Isr Support	0.5174	59

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.2084Mildly Concentrated

Italy scores 0.2084 on critical inputs dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1702

Channel A Volume

4.46B

Channel B Concentration

0.2466

Channel B Volume

4.46B

Score

0.2084

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

76 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

38.3%

7.4%

6.9%

6.8%

5.2%

4.4%

3.0%

2.2%

2.0%

1.7%

Other

38.3%

7.4%

6.9%

6.8%

5.2%

Other

13.3%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.1115	16.13M
Battery Metals	0.3715	2.14B
Defense Industrial Metals	0.1376	1.03B
Semiconductor Inputs	0.1018	729.4M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.1592	542.23M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4778Moderately Concentrated

Italy scores 0.4778 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.5509

Channel A Volume

1.14M

Channel B Concentration

0.2334

Channel B Volume

342.32K

Score

0.4778

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

48 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

51.7%

31.9%

26.9%

15.9%

13.5%

12.0%

10.1%

7.6%

4.3%

4.1%

Other

51.7%

31.9%

26.9%

15.9%

13.5%

Other

38.2%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.2128	270.09K
Rail	0.3105	72.23K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.2934

1.35B

Legacy Components

0.1505

223.4M

Integrated Circuits

0.1164

6.02B

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

1.0000

1.52K

Land Combat

0.4958

37.9

Naval Combat

0.4102

Strike Missile

1.0000

71.6

Isr Support

0.5174

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.1115

16.13M

Battery Metals

0.3715

2.14B

Defense Industrial Metals

0.1376

1.03B

Semiconductor Inputs

0.1018

729.4M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.1592

542.23M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.2128

270.09K

Rail

0.3105

72.23K