Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

Concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries and capability blocks.

Version v0.1Status: FrozenUnit: Sipri TivMaterialized: Yes

Cross-EU Statistics

Countries Scored

out of cohort (EU-27)

Min (Most Diversified)

0.0000

Slovakia

Max (Most Concentrated)

1.0000

Malta

Mean

0.5732

Cohort average

Std Deviation

0.2257

Cross-country dispersion

Range

1.0000

Max − Min spread

Score Distribution — Defense External Supplier Concentration

Distribution of HHI scores across all scored cohort countries for this axis.

Data Sources & Channels

This axis is computed from 2 data channel(s). Each channel represents a distinct trade-flow or supplier concentration dataset.

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Reference: www.sipri.org

Retrieval: Retrieved February 2026

Trend-Indicator Values (TIV) of international arms transfers between countries.

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Reference: www.sipri.org

Retrieval: Retrieved February 2026

Trend-Indicator Values (TIV) of international arms transfers between countries.

Known Limitations & Warnings

[Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
[Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
[Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
[Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
[Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Country Rankings — Defense External Supplier Concentration

1.MaltaMT

1.0000

Δ +0.4268Highly Concentrated● Outlier

2.NetherlandsNL

0.9596

Δ +0.3864Highly Concentrated● Outlier

3.ItalyIT

0.9206

Δ +0.3474Highly Concentrated● Outlier

4.SwedenSE

0.8811

Δ +0.3079Highly Concentrated

5.BulgariaBG

0.8606

Δ +0.2874Highly Concentrated

6.CyprusCY

0.7485

Δ +0.1753Highly Concentrated

7.CroatiaHR

0.7465

Δ +0.1733Highly Concentrated

8.DenmarkDK

0.7237

Δ +0.1505Highly Concentrated

9.SloveniaSI

0.6666

Δ +0.0934Highly Concentrated

10.LuxembourgLU

0.6448

Δ +0.0716Highly Concentrated

11.AustriaAT

0.5851

Δ +0.0119Highly Concentrated

12.GermanyDE

0.5827

Δ +0.0095Highly Concentrated

13.RomaniaRO

0.5635

Δ −0.0097Highly Concentrated

14.GreeceEL

0.5515

Δ −0.0217Highly Concentrated

15.HungaryHU

0.5447

Δ −0.0285Highly Concentrated

16.CzechiaCZ

0.4841

Δ −0.0891Moderately Concentrated

17.IrelandIE

0.4489

Δ −0.1243Moderately Concentrated

18.BelgiumBE

0.4473

Δ −0.1259Moderately Concentrated

19.PolandPL

0.4433

Δ −0.1299Moderately Concentrated

20.PortugalPT

0.4338

Δ −0.1394Moderately Concentrated

21.LithuaniaLT

0.4023

Δ −0.1709Moderately Concentrated

22.FinlandFI

0.3896

Δ −0.1836Moderately Concentrated

23.SpainES

0.3809

Δ −0.1923Moderately Concentrated

24.FranceFR

0.3703

Δ −0.2029Moderately Concentrated

25.EstoniaEE

0.3556

Δ −0.2176Moderately Concentrated

26.LatviaLV

0.3408

Δ −0.2324Moderately Concentrated

27.SlovakiaSK

0.0000

Δ −0.5732Unconcentrated● Outlier

#	Country	Score	Δ Mean	Classification	Outlier
1	MaltaMT	1.0000	+0.4268	Highly Concentrated	●
2	NetherlandsNL	0.9596	+0.3864	Highly Concentrated	●
3	ItalyIT	0.9206	+0.3474	Highly Concentrated	●
4	SwedenSE	0.8811	+0.3079	Highly Concentrated	—
5	BulgariaBG	0.8606	+0.2874	Highly Concentrated	—
6	CyprusCY	0.7485	+0.1753	Highly Concentrated	—
7	CroatiaHR	0.7465	+0.1733	Highly Concentrated	—
8	DenmarkDK	0.7237	+0.1505	Highly Concentrated	—
9	SloveniaSI	0.6666	+0.0934	Highly Concentrated	—
10	LuxembourgLU	0.6448	+0.0716	Highly Concentrated	—
11	AustriaAT	0.5851	+0.0119	Highly Concentrated	—
12	GermanyDE	0.5827	+0.0095	Highly Concentrated	—
13	RomaniaRO	0.5635	−0.0097	Highly Concentrated	—
14	GreeceEL	0.5515	−0.0217	Highly Concentrated	—
15	HungaryHU	0.5447	−0.0285	Highly Concentrated	—
16	CzechiaCZ	0.4841	−0.0891	Moderately Concentrated	—
17	IrelandIE	0.4489	−0.1243	Moderately Concentrated	—
18	BelgiumBE	0.4473	−0.1259	Moderately Concentrated	—
19	PolandPL	0.4433	−0.1299	Moderately Concentrated	—
20	PortugalPT	0.4338	−0.1394	Moderately Concentrated	—
21	LithuaniaLT	0.4023	−0.1709	Moderately Concentrated	—
22	FinlandFI	0.3896	−0.1836	Moderately Concentrated	—
23	SpainES	0.3809	−0.1923	Moderately Concentrated	—
24	FranceFR	0.3703	−0.2029	Moderately Concentrated	—
25	EstoniaEE	0.3556	−0.2176	Moderately Concentrated	—
26	LatviaLV	0.3408	−0.2324	Moderately Concentrated	—
27	SlovakiaSK	0.0000	−0.5732	Unconcentrated	●

● Outlier: country score deviates > 1.5σ from mean (0.3385).

Interpretive Boundaries

This axis measures structural concentration (HHI-based) in the defense external supplier concentration domain. It does not capture:

Qualitative resilience or substitutability of suppliers
Political risk or geopolitical alignment of trade partners
Temporal trends or year-over-year trajectory
Intra-EU vs. extra-EU supplier concentration decomposition

High concentration ≠ high vulnerability. Contextual interpretation required.

← Back to Overview

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

Concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries and capability blocks.

Version v0.1Status: FrozenUnit: Sipri TivMaterialized: Yes

Cross-EU Statistics

Countries Scored

out of cohort (EU-27)

Min (Most Diversified)

0.0000

Slovakia

Max (Most Concentrated)

1.0000

Malta

Mean

0.5732

Cohort average

Std Deviation

0.2257

Cross-country dispersion

Range

1.0000

Max − Min spread

Score Distribution — Defense External Supplier Concentration

Distribution of HHI scores across all scored cohort countries for this axis.

Data Sources & Channels

This axis is computed from 2 data channel(s). Each channel represents a distinct trade-flow or supplier concentration dataset.

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Reference: www.sipri.org

Retrieval: Retrieved February 2026

Trend-Indicator Values (TIV) of international arms transfers between countries.

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Reference: www.sipri.org

Retrieval: Retrieved February 2026

Trend-Indicator Values (TIV) of international arms transfers between countries.

Known Limitations & Warnings

[Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
[Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
[Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
[Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
[Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Country Rankings — Defense External Supplier Concentration

1.MaltaMT

1.0000

Δ +0.4268Highly Concentrated● Outlier

2.NetherlandsNL

0.9596

Δ +0.3864Highly Concentrated● Outlier

3.ItalyIT

0.9206

Δ +0.3474Highly Concentrated● Outlier

4.SwedenSE

0.8811

Δ +0.3079Highly Concentrated

5.BulgariaBG

0.8606

Δ +0.2874Highly Concentrated

6.CyprusCY

0.7485

Δ +0.1753Highly Concentrated

7.CroatiaHR

0.7465

Δ +0.1733Highly Concentrated

8.DenmarkDK

0.7237

Δ +0.1505Highly Concentrated

9.SloveniaSI

0.6666

Δ +0.0934Highly Concentrated

10.LuxembourgLU

0.6448

Δ +0.0716Highly Concentrated

11.AustriaAT

0.5851

Δ +0.0119Highly Concentrated

12.GermanyDE

0.5827

Δ +0.0095Highly Concentrated

13.RomaniaRO

0.5635

Δ −0.0097Highly Concentrated

14.GreeceEL

0.5515

Δ −0.0217Highly Concentrated

15.HungaryHU

0.5447

Δ −0.0285Highly Concentrated

16.CzechiaCZ

0.4841

Δ −0.0891Moderately Concentrated

17.IrelandIE

0.4489

Δ −0.1243Moderately Concentrated

18.BelgiumBE

0.4473

Δ −0.1259Moderately Concentrated

19.PolandPL

0.4433

Δ −0.1299Moderately Concentrated

20.PortugalPT

0.4338

Δ −0.1394Moderately Concentrated

21.LithuaniaLT

0.4023

Δ −0.1709Moderately Concentrated

22.FinlandFI

0.3896

Δ −0.1836Moderately Concentrated

23.SpainES

0.3809

Δ −0.1923Moderately Concentrated

24.FranceFR

0.3703

Δ −0.2029Moderately Concentrated

25.EstoniaEE

0.3556

Δ −0.2176Moderately Concentrated

26.LatviaLV

0.3408

Δ −0.2324Moderately Concentrated

27.SlovakiaSK

0.0000

Δ −0.5732Unconcentrated● Outlier

#	Country	Score	Δ Mean	Classification	Outlier
1	MaltaMT	1.0000	+0.4268	Highly Concentrated	●
2	NetherlandsNL	0.9596	+0.3864	Highly Concentrated	●
3	ItalyIT	0.9206	+0.3474	Highly Concentrated	●
4	SwedenSE	0.8811	+0.3079	Highly Concentrated	—
5	BulgariaBG	0.8606	+0.2874	Highly Concentrated	—
6	CyprusCY	0.7485	+0.1753	Highly Concentrated	—
7	CroatiaHR	0.7465	+0.1733	Highly Concentrated	—
8	DenmarkDK	0.7237	+0.1505	Highly Concentrated	—
9	SloveniaSI	0.6666	+0.0934	Highly Concentrated	—
10	LuxembourgLU	0.6448	+0.0716	Highly Concentrated	—
11	AustriaAT	0.5851	+0.0119	Highly Concentrated	—
12	GermanyDE	0.5827	+0.0095	Highly Concentrated	—
13	RomaniaRO	0.5635	−0.0097	Highly Concentrated	—
14	GreeceEL	0.5515	−0.0217	Highly Concentrated	—
15	HungaryHU	0.5447	−0.0285	Highly Concentrated	—
16	CzechiaCZ	0.4841	−0.0891	Moderately Concentrated	—
17	IrelandIE	0.4489	−0.1243	Moderately Concentrated	—
18	BelgiumBE	0.4473	−0.1259	Moderately Concentrated	—
19	PolandPL	0.4433	−0.1299	Moderately Concentrated	—
20	PortugalPT	0.4338	−0.1394	Moderately Concentrated	—
21	LithuaniaLT	0.4023	−0.1709	Moderately Concentrated	—
22	FinlandFI	0.3896	−0.1836	Moderately Concentrated	—
23	SpainES	0.3809	−0.1923	Moderately Concentrated	—
24	FranceFR	0.3703	−0.2029	Moderately Concentrated	—
25	EstoniaEE	0.3556	−0.2176	Moderately Concentrated	—
26	LatviaLV	0.3408	−0.2324	Moderately Concentrated	—
27	SlovakiaSK	0.0000	−0.5732	Unconcentrated	●

● Outlier: country score deviates > 1.5σ from mean (0.3385).

Interpretive Boundaries

This axis measures structural concentration (HHI-based) in the defense external supplier concentration domain. It does not capture:

Qualitative resilience or substitutability of suppliers
Political risk or geopolitical alignment of trade partners
Temporal trends or year-over-year trajectory
Intra-EU vs. extra-EU supplier concentration decomposition

High concentration ≠ high vulnerability. Contextual interpretation required.