Sweden

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.3987

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

7 / 27

Less concentrated than 26% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ +0.0543

Position in Cohort Distribution

Sweden's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1165−0.2279

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3272−0.0172

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1198−0.2246

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.8811+0.5367

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1926−0.1518

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.7551+0.4107

Structural Exposure Summary

Sweden records a composite ISI of 0.3987, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 7 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Defense Industrial Dependency (0.8811) and Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.7551), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Financial Sovereignty at 0.1165, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.7646 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1165

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1198

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.8811

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.7551

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1165Unconcentrated

Sweden scores 0.1165 on financial sovereignty (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1180

Channel A Volume

289.16K

Channel B Concentration

0.1133

Channel B Volume

141.07K

Score

0.1165

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

30 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

17.8%

14.1%

14.0%

13.2%

11.5%

10.6%

4.4%

3.2%

2.7%

2.1%

Other

17.8%

14.1%

14.0%

13.2%

11.5%

Other

23.0%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3272Moderately Concentrated

Sweden scores 0.3272 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

30 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

32.1%

13.9%

12.1%

Other

32.1%

13.9%

12.1%

Other

12.1%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

294 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

66 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

37.5%

27.7%

26.1%

24.8%

37.5%

27.7%

26.1%

24.8%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3455

Oil

0.3203

Solid Fossil

0.3353

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1198Unconcentrated

Sweden scores 0.1198 on technology/semiconductor dependency (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1118

Channel A Volume

3.94B

Channel B Concentration

0.1278

Channel B Volume

3.94B

Score

0.1198

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

137 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

21.0%

18.9%

11.2%

7.7%

6.6%

5.5%

4.3%

3.4%

3.0%

2.8%

Other

21.0%

18.9%

11.2%

7.7%

6.6%

Other

18.9%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.2083	418.12M
Legacy Components	0.1975	50.2M
Integrated Circuits	0.1171	3.47B

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.8811Highly Concentrated

Sweden scores 0.8811 on defense industrial dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.8207

Channel A Volume

612.8000

Channel B Concentration

0.9415

Channel B Volume

612.8000

Score

0.8811

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

8 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

90.5%

3.3%

1.7%

1.2%

0.7%

0.5%

90.5%

3.3%

1.7%

1.2%

Other

1.6%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	0.2759	42.3
Land Combat	1.0000	10.5
Air Missile Defense	1.0000	297
Naval Combat	0.7732	23
Strike Missile	1.0000	240

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1926Mildly Concentrated

Sweden scores 0.1926 on critical inputs dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1228

Channel A Volume

2.45B

Channel B Concentration

0.2623

Channel B Volume

2.45B

Score

0.1926

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

69 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

24.2%

17.5%

9.8%

8.3%

6.8%

5.0%

4.5%

3.6%

3.2%

Other

24.2%

17.5%

9.8%

8.3%

6.8%

Other

23.0%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.3356	2.56M
Battery Metals	0.1308	1.27B
Defense Industrial Metals	0.4054	844.41M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.5770	172.35M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.2120	157.08M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.7551Highly Concentrated

Sweden scores 0.7551 on logistics/freight dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.7966

Channel A Volume

369.14K

Channel B Concentration

0.3941

Channel B Volume

42.41K

Score

0.7551

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

23 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

59.3%

14.7%

12.9%

5.4%

2.4%

1.6%

0.6%

0.5%

59.3%

14.7%

12.9%

5.4%

2.4%

Other

3.6%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.3941	42.41K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.2083

418.12M

Legacy Components

0.1975

50.2M

Integrated Circuits

0.1171

3.47B

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

0.2759

42.3

Land Combat

1.0000

10.5

Air Missile Defense

1.0000

297

Naval Combat

0.7732

Strike Missile

1.0000

240

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.3356

2.56M

Battery Metals

0.1308

1.27B

Defense Industrial Metals

0.4054

844.41M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.5770

172.35M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.2120

157.08M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.3941

42.41K