Poland

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.2956

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

20 / 27

Less concentrated than 74% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0488

Position in Cohort Distribution

Poland's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1331−0.2112

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3349−0.0095

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2085−0.1359

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4433+0.0989

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1653−0.1791

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4886+0.1442

Structural Exposure Summary

Poland records a composite ISI of 0.2956, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 20 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.4886) and Defense Industrial Dependency (0.4433), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Financial Sovereignty at 0.1331, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.3555 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1331

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration0.1653

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.4886

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.4433

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1331Unconcentrated

Poland scores 0.1331 on financial sovereignty (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1321

Channel A Volume

120.22K

Channel B Concentration

0.1381

Channel B Volume

24.9K

Score

0.1331

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

27 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

24.6%

19.3%

10.8%

8.2%

6.8%

6.6%

4.8%

4.3%

2.7%

2.4%

Other

24.6%

19.3%

10.8%

8.2%

6.8%

Other

20.7%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3349Moderately Concentrated

Poland scores 0.3349 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

36 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

NSP

27.4%

NSP

27.2%

EUR_OTH

24.6%

EUR_OTH

24.5%

ASI_NME_OTH

19.7%

ASI_NME_OTH

19.5%

NSP

EUR_OTH

ASI_NME_OTH

Other

NSP

27.4%

NSP

27.2%

EUR_OTH

24.6%

EUR_OTH

24.5%

ASI_NME_OTH

19.7%

Other

19.5%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

643 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

109 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3400

Oil

0.3132

Solid Fossil

0.3294

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2085Mildly Concentrated

Poland scores 0.2085 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2045

Channel A Volume

11.69B

Channel B Concentration

0.2124

Channel B Volume

11.69B

Score

0.2085

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

111 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

38.6%

20.1%

7.7%

4.9%

4.0%

3.8%

3.3%

2.0%

1.9%

1.7%

Other

38.6%

20.1%

7.7%

4.9%

4.0%

Other

12.5%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.2133	1.03B
Legacy Components	0.1306	83.72M
Integrated Circuits	0.2130	10.58B

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4433Moderately Concentrated

Poland scores 0.4433 on defense industrial dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.3556

Channel A Volume

3.62K

Channel B Concentration

0.5309

Channel B Volume

3.62K

Score

0.4433

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

11 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

43.9%

39.9%

3.4%

2.7%

2.4%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%

0.7%

43.9%

39.9%

3.4%

2.7%

2.4%

Other

7.1%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	0.2385	823.2
Land Combat	0.5652	1.52K
Air Missile Defense	0.7632	255
Naval Combat	0.9168	63.25
Strike Missile	0.6642	892.74
Isr Support	0.3123	64.59

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1653Mildly Concentrated

Poland scores 0.1653 on critical inputs dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1272

Channel A Volume

2.16B

Channel B Concentration

0.2034

Channel B Volume

2.16B

Score

0.1653

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

75 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

29.8%

10.4%

10.2%

8.0%

6.3%

5.1%

2.9%

2.4%

2.0%

1.8%

Other

29.8%

10.4%

10.2%

8.0%

6.3%

Other

14.3%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.1986	17.96M
Battery Metals	0.1275	553.72M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.1525	138.94M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.1179	266.44M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.2643	1.18B

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4886Moderately Concentrated

Poland scores 0.4886 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.7499

Channel A Volume

2.25M

Channel B Concentration

0.1945

Channel B Volume

Score

0.4886

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

69 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

40.9%

28.4%

20.5%

20.4%

10.4%

9.2%

6.1%

5.8%

5.4%

5.2%

Other

40.9%

28.4%

20.5%

20.4%

10.4%

Other

31.8%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.1950	1.93M
Rail	0.1791	67.49K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.2133

1.03B

Legacy Components

0.1306

83.72M

Integrated Circuits

0.2130

10.58B

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

0.2385

823.2

Land Combat

0.5652

1.52K

Air Missile Defense

0.7632

255

Naval Combat

0.9168

63.25

Strike Missile

0.6642

892.74

Isr Support

0.3123

64.59

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.1986

17.96M

Battery Metals

0.1275

553.72M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.1525

138.94M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.1179

266.44M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.2643

1.18B

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.1950

1.93M

Rail

0.1791

67.49K