Estonia

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.3433

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

13 / 27

Less concentrated than 48% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0011

Position in Cohort Distribution

Estonia's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1817−0.1627

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.4394+0.0950

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2271−0.1173

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.3556+0.0112

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.3862+0.0418

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4699+0.1255

Structural Exposure Summary

Estonia records a composite ISI of 0.3433, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 13 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.4699) and Energy Dependency (0.4394), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Financial Sovereignty at 0.1817, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.2882 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1817

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.2271

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.4699

Energy External Supplier Concentration0.4394

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1817Mildly Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.1817 on financial sovereignty (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.3016

Channel A Volume

3.77K

Channel B Concentration

0.0820

Channel B Volume

4.54K

Score

0.1817

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

18 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

48.7%

20.1%

14.3%

3.2%

2.9%

2.6%

2.0%

1.6%

1.1%

1.0%

48.7%

20.1%

14.3%

3.2%

2.9%

Other

8.4%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.4394Moderately Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.4394 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

4 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

166 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

6 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.5000

Oil

0.3475

Solid Fossil

0.5000

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2271Mildly Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.2271 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2241

Channel A Volume

888.26M

Channel B Concentration

0.2302

Channel B Volume

888.26M

Score

0.2271

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

66 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

42.5%

13.4%

13.1%

6.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.5%

2.4%

2.1%

Other

42.5%

13.4%

13.1%

6.0%

3.0%

Other

12.8%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.1992	102.67M
Legacy Components	0.1560	19.82M
Integrated Circuits	0.2363	765.77M

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.3556Moderately Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.3556 on defense industrial dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2239

Channel A Volume

170.1200

Channel B Concentration

0.4873

Channel B Volume

170.1200

Score

0.3556

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

9 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

36.6%

25.4%

9.4%

7.9%

6.1%

5.9%

4.9%

2.6%

1.2%

Other

36.6%

25.4%

9.4%

7.9%

6.1%

Other

14.6%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	1.0000	2.2
Land Combat	0.3345	84.79
Air Missile Defense	0.5075	23.8
Strike Missile	0.6136	49.33
Isr Support	1.0000	10

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.3862Moderately Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.3862 on critical inputs dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2818

Channel A Volume

158.11M

Channel B Concentration

0.4907

Channel B Volume

158.11M

Score

0.3862

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

44 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.2%

10.0%

8.6%

6.6%

5.6%

3.5%

3.4%

2.8%

1.4%

Other

50.2%

10.0%

8.6%

6.6%

5.6%

Other

14.6%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.8967	61.85M
Battery Metals	0.4668	14.38M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.1547	68.03M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.4227	2.06M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.3406	11.79M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.4699Moderately Concentrated

Estonia scores 0.4699 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.5444

Channel A Volume

80.26K

Channel B Concentration

0.2386

Channel B Volume

25.86K

Score

0.4699

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

34 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

78.0%

31.9%

26.7%

9.6%

9.2%

8.8%

6.9%

6.5%

5.6%

2.6%

Other

78.0%

31.9%

26.7%

9.6%

9.2%

Other

30.4%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.1951	23.26K
Rail	0.6268	2.6K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.1992

102.67M

Legacy Components

0.1560

19.82M

Integrated Circuits

0.2363

765.77M

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

1.0000

2.2

Land Combat

0.3345

84.79

Air Missile Defense

0.5075

23.8

Strike Missile

0.6136

49.33

Isr Support

1.0000

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.8967

61.85M

Battery Metals

0.4668

14.38M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.1547

68.03M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.4227

2.06M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.3406

11.79M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.1951

23.26K

Rail

0.6268

2.6K