Croatia

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.4043

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

5 / 27

Less concentrated than 19% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ +0.0600

Position in Cohort Distribution

Croatia's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.2730−0.0714

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3513+0.0069

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1734−0.1710

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.7465+0.4021

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.5239+0.1795

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3580+0.0136

Structural Exposure Summary

Croatia records a composite ISI of 0.4043, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 5 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Defense Industrial Dependency (0.7465) and Critical Inputs / Raw Materials Dependency (0.5239), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Technology / Semiconductor Dependency at 0.1734, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.5730 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1734

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.2730

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.7465

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration0.5239

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.2730Moderately Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.2730 on financial sovereignty (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2730

Channel A Volume

14.25K

Channel B Concentration

0.0000

Channel B Volume

0.0000

Score

0.2730

Basis

A Only

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

21 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

35.8%

30.2%

22.7%

3.2%

2.4%

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.7%

35.8%

30.2%

22.7%

3.2%

2.4%

Other

4.5%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3513Moderately Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.3513 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

28 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

31.0%

29.9%

8.7%

31.0%

29.9%

8.7%

Other

8.7%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

309 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

49 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

48.4%

33.1%

31.4%

48.4%

33.1%

31.4%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3565

Oil

0.3190

Solid Fossil

0.3390

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1734Mildly Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.1734 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1343

Channel A Volume

176.88M

Channel B Concentration

0.2125

Channel B Volume

176.88M

Score

0.1734

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

66 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

25.9%

17.8%

12.9%

6.5%

6.2%

6.1%

5.4%

4.9%

2.7%

2.2%

Other

25.9%

17.8%

12.9%

6.5%

6.2%

Other

21.3%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.1697	19.28M
Legacy Components	0.5147	26.05M
Integrated Circuits	0.1590	131.55M

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.7465Highly Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.7465 on defense industrial dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.7268

Channel A Volume

212.9500

Channel B Concentration

0.7662

Channel B Volume

212.9500

Score

0.7465

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

3 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

84.1%

13.6%

2.3%

84.1%

13.6%

2.3%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	0.7571	205
Land Combat	1.0000	4.8
Air Missile Defense	1.0000	3.15

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.5239Highly Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.5239 on critical inputs dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.4043

Channel A Volume

195.1M

Channel B Concentration

0.6435

Channel B Volume

195.1M

Score

0.5239

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

38 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

61.2%

13.5%

9.2%

4.8%

1.9%

1.7%

1.2%

0.9%

0.7%

61.2%

13.5%

9.2%

4.8%

1.9%

Other

5.2%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.4220	50.09K
Battery Metals	0.2758	5.49M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.3090	530.56K
Semiconductor Inputs	0.8476	129.7M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.2347	59.33M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3580Moderately Concentrated

Croatia scores 0.3580 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.5068

Channel A Volume

180.85K

Channel B Concentration

0.1629

Channel B Volume

137.91K

Score

0.3580

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

51 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

28.7%

22.5%

22.4%

21.8%

20.5%

11.5%

10.4%

9.4%

8.8%

8.0%

Other

28.7%

22.5%

22.4%

21.8%

20.5%

Other

48.1%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.1615	120.57K
Rail	0.1720	17.34K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.1697

19.28M

Legacy Components

0.5147

26.05M

Integrated Circuits

0.1590

131.55M

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

0.7571

205

Land Combat

1.0000

4.8

Air Missile Defense

1.0000

3.15

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.4220

50.09K

Battery Metals

0.2758

5.49M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.3090

530.56K

Semiconductor Inputs

0.8476

129.7M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.2347

59.33M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.1615

120.57K

Rail

0.1720

17.34K