Latvia

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.2470

Mildly Concentrated

Cohort Rank

25 / 27

Less concentrated than 93% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0974

Position in Cohort Distribution

Latvia's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1232−0.2212

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3652+0.0208

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1331−0.2113

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.3408−0.0036

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1512−0.1932

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3682+0.0238

Structural Exposure Summary

Latvia records a composite ISI of 0.2470, classified as Mildly Concentrated (rank 25 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.3682) and Energy Dependency (0.3652), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Financial Sovereignty at 0.1232, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.2451 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1232

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1331

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.3682

Energy External Supplier Concentration0.3652

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1232Unconcentrated

Latvia scores 0.1232 on financial sovereignty (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2263

Channel A Volume

2.04K

Channel B Concentration

0.0878

Channel B Volume

5.96K

Score

0.1232

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

19 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

40.5%

16.3%

5.8%

3.9%

3.3%

3.2%

2.4%

2.2%

1.5%

Other

40.5%

16.3%

5.8%

3.9%

Other

12.7%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3652Moderately Concentrated

Latvia scores 0.3652 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

10 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

28.1%

21.9%

Other

50.0%

28.1%

21.9%

Other

21.9%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

360 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

44 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

45.3%

39.8%

38.2%

7.8%

7.5%

45.3%

39.8%

38.2%

7.8%

Other

7.5%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3775

Oil

0.3363

Solid Fossil

0.4071

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1331Unconcentrated

Latvia scores 0.1331 on technology/semiconductor dependency (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1302

Channel A Volume

586.95M

Channel B Concentration

0.1360

Channel B Volume

586.95M

Score

0.1331

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

73 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

30.1%

11.3%

9.8%

6.2%

6.1%

4.6%

4.1%

3.8%

3.5%

3.3%

Other

30.1%

11.3%

9.8%

6.2%

6.1%

Other

19.3%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.1131	22.99M
Legacy Components	0.1055	9.35M
Integrated Circuits	0.1374	554.61M

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.3408Moderately Concentrated

Latvia scores 0.3408 on defense industrial dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1983

Channel A Volume

141.4400

Channel B Concentration

0.4833

Channel B Volume

141.4400

Score

0.3408

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

6 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

25.8%

24.3%

17.3%

16.9%

11.0%

4.8%

25.8%

24.3%

17.3%

16.9%

11.0%

Other

4.8%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	1.0000	14.5
Land Combat	0.3653	74.32
Air Missile Defense	0.5322	10.72
Isr Support	0.5013	41.9

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1512Mildly Concentrated

Latvia scores 0.1512 on critical inputs dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1119

Channel A Volume

78.34M

Channel B Concentration

0.1905

Channel B Volume

78.34M

Score

0.1512

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

44 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

18.6%

17.1%

14.5%

11.1%

7.6%

5.4%

4.6%

4.3%

2.9%

1.9%

Other

18.6%

17.1%

14.5%

11.1%

7.6%

Other

19.1%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.2073	82.24K
Battery Metals	0.1367	2.78M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.2489	14M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.2706	12.62M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.1562	48.86M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3682Moderately Concentrated

Latvia scores 0.3682 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.4567

Channel A Volume

178.74K

Channel B Concentration

0.2115

Channel B Volume

100.88K

Score

0.3682

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

47 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

52.0%

32.4%

28.1%

9.9%

9.4%

8.9%

8.6%

7.3%

6.8%

Other

52.0%

32.4%

28.1%

9.9%

9.4%

Other

40.5%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.2019	91.91K
Rail	0.3097	8.97K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.1131

22.99M

Legacy Components

0.1055

9.35M

Integrated Circuits

0.1374

554.61M

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

1.0000

14.5

Land Combat

0.3653

74.32

Air Missile Defense

0.5322

10.72

Isr Support

0.5013

41.9

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.2073

82.24K

Battery Metals

0.1367

2.78M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.2489

14M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.2706

12.62M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.1562

48.86M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.2019

91.91K

Rail

0.3097

8.97K