Lithuania

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.2654

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

23 / 27

Less concentrated than 85% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0790

Position in Cohort Distribution

Lithuania's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1335−0.2109

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3375−0.0069

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2417−0.1027

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4023+0.0579

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1306−0.2138

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3469+0.0025

Structural Exposure Summary

Lithuania records a composite ISI of 0.2654, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 23 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Defense Industrial Dependency (0.4023) and Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.3469), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Critical Inputs / Raw Materials Dependency at 0.1306, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.2717 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration0.1306

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1335

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.4023

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.3469

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1335Unconcentrated

Lithuania scores 0.1335 on financial sovereignty (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1687

Channel A Volume

13K

Channel B Concentration

0.0889

Channel B Volume

10.25K

Score

0.1335

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

18 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

23.3%

22.1%

19.1%

14.1%

7.1%

4.2%

3.3%

1.4%

1.3%

0.9%

Other

23.3%

22.1%

19.1%

14.1%

7.1%

Other

11.1%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3375Moderately Concentrated

Lithuania scores 0.3375 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

24 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

25.0%

21.1%

20.8%

Other

25.0%

21.1%

20.8%

Other

20.8%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

314 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

26 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

42.3%

50.0%

42.3%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3422

Oil

0.3177

Solid Fossil

0.3890

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.2417Mildly Concentrated

Lithuania scores 0.2417 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2402

Channel A Volume

863.25M

Channel B Concentration

0.2433

Channel B Volume

863.25M

Score

0.2417

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

70 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

45.3%

11.3%

11.1%

6.3%

5.7%

2.3%

2.2%

1.8%

1.7%

Other

45.3%

11.3%

11.1%

6.3%

5.7%

Other

9.8%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.2231	84.32M
Legacy Components	0.1698	28.88M
Integrated Circuits	0.2484	750.05M

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4023Moderately Concentrated

Lithuania scores 0.4023 on defense industrial dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2771

Channel A Volume

502.4400

Channel B Concentration

0.5275

Channel B Volume

502.4400

Score

0.4023

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

6 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

37.7%

31.0%

16.7%

10.0%

3.4%

1.3%

37.7%

31.0%

16.7%

10.0%

3.4%

Other

1.3%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Land Combat	0.3535	327.84
Air Missile Defense	0.6202	67.1
Strike Missile	1.0000	97.5
Isr Support	1.0000	10

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.1306Unconcentrated

Lithuania scores 0.1306 on critical inputs dependency (unconcentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1245

Channel A Volume

393.99M

Channel B Concentration

0.1367

Channel B Volume

393.99M

Score

0.1306

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

43 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

20.8%

16.3%

15.1%

11.5%

7.8%

7.0%

6.9%

3.8%

2.2%

2.0%

Other

20.8%

16.3%

15.1%

11.5%

7.8%

Other

21.9%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.2402	629.64K
Battery Metals	0.0894	4.46M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.1665	8.14M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.4173	3.11M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.1341	377.65M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.3469Moderately Concentrated

Lithuania scores 0.3469 on logistics/freight dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.4787

Channel A Volume

207.36K

Channel B Concentration

0.1368

Channel B Volume

130.11K

Score

0.3469

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

54 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

34.4%

28.2%

21.9%

14.7%

14.1%

11.7%

9.7%

9.3%

8.4%

4.9%

Other

34.4%

28.2%

21.9%

14.7%

14.1%

Other

44.0%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.1311	120.51K
Rail	0.2085	9.6K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.2231

84.32M

Legacy Components

0.1698

28.88M

Integrated Circuits

0.2484

750.05M

Category

HHI

Volume

Land Combat

0.3535

327.84

Air Missile Defense

0.6202

67.1

Strike Missile

1.0000

97.5

Isr Support

1.0000

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.2402

629.64K

Battery Metals

0.0894

4.46M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.1665

8.14M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.4173

3.11M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.1341

377.65M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.1311

120.51K

Rail

0.2085

9.6K