Portugal

v0.1 · 2022–2024 · 6/6 axes

Composite Score

ISI Composite

0.3217

Moderately Concentrated

Cohort Rank

17 / 27

Less concentrated than 63% of cohort

Axes Coverage

6 / 6

All axes available

Cohort Mean: 0.3444 · Δ -0.0227

Position in Cohort Distribution

Portugal's composite score relative to the EU-27 cohort.

Multi-Axis Profile

Deviation from Cohort Mean

Bars show deviation from cohort composite mean (0.3444). Red = above mean. Green = below mean.

Axis

−0.30EU Mean+0.30

ScoreΔ Mean

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1830−0.1614

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3486+0.0042

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1977−0.1467

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4338+0.0894

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.2596−0.0848

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.5078+0.1634

Structural Exposure Summary

Portugal records a composite ISI of 0.3217, classified as Moderately Concentrated (rank 17 of 27). Structural exposure is led by Logistics / Freight Dependency (0.5078) and Defense Industrial Dependency (0.4338), which together represent the primary concentration vectors. The lowest axis score is Financial Sovereignty at 0.1830, indicating relative diversification in this domain and a score below the cohort composite mean. The 0.3248 spread between the highest and lowest axes signals an uneven exposure profile across domains.

Most Diversified (Lowest HHI)

Financial External Supplier Concentration0.1830

Technology External Supplier Concentration0.1977

Most Concentrated (Highest HHI)

Logistics External Supplier Concentration0.5078

Defense External Supplier Concentration0.4338

Axis 1

Financial External Supplier Concentration

0.1830Mildly Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.1830 on financial sovereignty (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of inward banking claims and portfolio debt holdings across foreign creditor countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2545

Channel A Volume

89.41K

Channel B Concentration

0.1332

Channel B Volume

128.26K

Score

0.1830

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Banking Claims Concentration

28 partners

BIS — International Banking Statistics · Bank for International Settlements

Top Partners

40.9%

26.8%

7.8%

5.6%

5.3%

4.6%

1.5%

1.3%

1.0%

0.9%

40.9%

26.8%

7.8%

5.6%

5.3%

Other

9.3%

Ch. B: Portfolio Debt Concentration

IMF — Financial Statistics · International Monetary Fund

Warnings

◆ [Medium]BIS creditor coverage gap: non-BIS-reporting countries absent as creditors; concentration may be biased upward.
◆ [Medium]IMF CPIS participation is voluntary; China does not participate. Portfolio debt concentration may understate true exposure.
● [Low]Partial overlap between Channel A (bank claims) and Channel B (portfolio debt securities held by banks).
● [Low]Croatia (HR) absent from Channel B (IMF CPIS). Score reduces to Channel A only.

Axis 2

Energy External Supplier Concentration

0.3486Moderately Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.3486 on energy dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of fossil fuel imports (gas, oil, solid fossil fuels) across supplier countries.

Channels

Ch. gas: Natural Gas Import Concentration

20 partners

Eurostat — Natural Gas Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

25.9%

20.1%

Other

25.9%

20.1%

Other

20.1%

Ch. oil: Oil Import Concentration

266 partners

Eurostat — Oil Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. solid_fossil: Solid Fossil Fuel Import Concentration

10 partners

Eurostat — Solid Fossil Fuels Trade · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

50.0%

Fuel Concentrations

Gas

0.3586

Oil

0.3112

Solid Fossil

0.5000

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Pipeline gas and LNG not separated. A country importing 50% pipeline gas from Russia and 50% LNG from multiple sources scores as if partially diversified.
◆ [Medium]Re-exports and transit flows may distort bilateral attribution across all fuel types.
● [Low]No price or contract-duration effects captured. Volume-based concentration only.

Axis 3

Technology External Supplier Concentration

0.1977Mildly Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.1977 on technology/semiconductor dependency (mildly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of semiconductor imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.1958

Channel A Volume

4.83B

Channel B Concentration

0.1995

Channel B Volume

4.83B

Score

0.1977

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

101 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

38.8%

12.9%

10.7%

9.6%

5.8%

4.0%

3.4%

2.7%

2.3%

1.3%

Other

38.8%

12.9%

10.7%

9.6%

5.8%

Other

13.7%

Ch. B: Category-Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Legacy Discrete	0.2268	288.88M
Legacy Components	0.3138	76.97M
Integrated Circuits	0.1957	4.47B

Warnings

◆ [Medium]Re-export blindness: bilateral trade records shipping country, not country of origin.
● [Low]Trade concentration does not capture domestic fabrication capacity.
● [Low]HS 8542 at HS4 aggregate: integrated circuits not decomposed into subcategories.
● [Low]Intra-EU trade included: EU partners appear as suppliers (by design).
● [Low]Three-year window (2022–2024) may include pandemic-era distortions.

Axis 4

Defense External Supplier Concentration

0.4338Moderately Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.4338 on defense industrial dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of major conventional arms imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.3646

Channel A Volume

222.6500

Channel B Concentration

0.5029

Channel B Volume

222.6500

Score

0.4338

Basis

Both Channels

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

6 partners

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Top Partners

48.5%

34.1%

8.7%

7.1%

1.3%

0.2%

48.5%

34.1%

8.7%

7.1%

1.3%

Other

0.2%

Ch. B: Capability-Block Weighted Concentration

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database · Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Air Power	0.4446	197.75
Land Combat	0.9568	19.9
Naval Combat	1.0000	3
Strike Missile	1.0000	2

Warnings

◆ [Medium]SIPRI TIV is a volume indicator, not a financial value. Comparability across weapon types is approximate.
◆ [Medium]SIPRI covers major conventional weapons only. Small arms, ammunition, MRO, and sustainment contracts are excluded.
● [Low]Six-year delivery window (2019–2024) may include legacy contracts not reflecting current strategic posture.
● [Low]Regex-based weapon classification may cause edge-case misclassification across capability blocks.
● [Low]Countries with no bilateral SIPRI supplier entries are assigned score=0 (zero external concentration). This reflects licensed production, joint EU procurement, or domestic manufacturing.

Axis 5

Critical Inputs External Supplier Concentration

0.2596Moderately Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.2596 on critical inputs dependency (moderately concentrated). This reflects the concentration of critical raw material imports across supplier countries.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.2368

Channel A Volume

200.41M

Channel B Concentration

0.2823

Channel B Volume

200.41M

Score

0.2596

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Aggregate Supplier Concentration

54 partners

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

43.2%

18.5%

7.3%

5.8%

5.0%

4.3%

2.7%

2.6%

2.0%

1.9%

Other

43.2%

18.5%

7.3%

5.8%

5.0%

Other

13.4%

Ch. B: Material-Group Weighted Supplier Concentration

Eurostat Comext — Detailed Trade Statistics · European Commission, Eurostat

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Rare Earths	0.1975	2.25M
Battery Metals	0.2334	27.4M
Defense Industrial Metals	0.2327	36.19M
Semiconductor Inputs	0.5490	25.99M
Fertilizer Chokepoints	0.2491	108.57M

Warnings

▲ [High]Re-export and entrepot masking: bilateral trade records shipping country, not origin. 13 of 27 reporters source >50% from EU partners.
◆ [Medium]Small-economy amplification: CY, MT, LU produce mechanically high HHI values due to low total import volumes.
◆ [Medium]CN8 scope covers upstream materials only. Midstream processing and downstream products excluded. China's role understated.
● [Low]Confidential trade suppression: Q-prefix partner codes excluded. May cause underestimation for some partners.

Axis 6

Logistics External Supplier Concentration

0.5078Highly Concentrated

Portugal scores 0.5078 on logistics/freight dependency (highly concentrated). This reflects the concentration of international freight across transport modes and bilateral partners.

Audit Breakdown

Channel A Concentration

0.4961

Channel A Volume

302.7K

Channel B Concentration

0.5316

Channel B Volume

148.06K

Score

0.5078

Basis

Both

Channels

Ch. A: Transport Mode Concentration

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Ch. B: Partner Concentration Per Transport Mode

24 partners

Eurostat — Statistical Database · European Commission, Eurostat

Top Partners

100.0%

70.5%

16.6%

4.6%

2.0%

1.7%

1.2%

1.1%

0.4%

100.0%

70.5%

16.6%

4.6%

2.0%

Other

4.8%

Subcategories

Category	HHI	Volume
Road	0.5275	146.78K
Rail	1.0000	1.28K

Warnings

▲ [High]Entrepot/hub masking: NL and BE scores understate their systemic importance as continental freight hubs; countries trading through NL/BE have inflated partner concentration masking true origin.
◆ [Medium]Geographic determinism: MT (Channel A HHI = 1.0), CY, and landlocked countries have structurally constrained scores reflecting geography, not policy choices.
◆ [Medium]Maritime-energy overlap: maritime tonnage includes energy commodity transport, creating partial redundancy with Axis 3 (Energy).
◆ [Medium]Tonnage blindness: all freight is treated equally per tonne regardless of commodity type; strategic commodity differentiation is absent.
● [Low]No route/chokepoint data: the axis cannot detect Suez, Bosporus, or any physical corridor dependency.

Cite: Drazsky, S., & International Sovereignty Institute. (2026). International Sovereignty Index (ISI) — EU-27 Founding Cohort (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18764170

Category

HHI

Volume

Legacy Discrete

0.2268

288.88M

Legacy Components

0.3138

76.97M

Integrated Circuits

0.1957

4.47B

Category

HHI

Volume

Air Power

0.4446

197.75

Land Combat

0.9568

19.9

Naval Combat

1.0000

Strike Missile

1.0000

Category

HHI

Volume

Rare Earths

0.1975

2.25M

Battery Metals

0.2334

27.4M

Defense Industrial Metals

0.2327

36.19M

Semiconductor Inputs

0.5490

25.99M

Fertilizer Chokepoints

0.2491

108.57M

Category

HHI

Volume

Road

0.5275

146.78K

Rail

1.0000

1.28K